PS4 in 2012?

Sony needs to do something big in 2012.  Yes, they've got the PlayStation Vita launching worldwide in February of 2012, but judging from sales in Japan, that might not be enough.  Now I'm not going to slam Sony for the Vita's performance in Japan -- I think the Vita is a great system.  This isn't about that.  Rather, this is about Sony potentially losing ground in the living room console war.

With plans to expand the Xbox 360 functionality by including all-new apps, more Kinect support, and a potential DVR, Microsoft is setting up the Xbox 360 to be THE MUST-HAVE entertainment hub in your living room.  It seems like Microsoft wants the Xbox 360 to do it all and have it all.  And if it has it all, then what purpose would users have for a PS3? As a gamer, I could name a few and definitely see the importance from a gaming perspective of having the PS3, but can the general population justify spending the money on one?

Nintendo, as we all know, is gearing up for the release of its new system, the Wii U.  Using an innovative tablet-based controller, the Wii U may not have the best graphics of the group, but what it lacks in graphics it makes up for in originality.  If we've learned anything from the past, it's that originality sells.  Just look at the Wii.  People love things that are new.  Not to mention, with rumors of a new app-store for the Wii U, users might be able to use the controller as more of a tablet.  It's possible that users could get multiple uses from the single console -- similar to Xbox expanding to include more with their consoles.

But what is Sony doing?  What new thing are they bringing to the living room that leads the casual market to say, "I HAVE to have that system!" 

Yes, the PS3 offers plenty of apps, great exclusives, amazing graphics, and plenty more, but I feel like Sony hasn't done enough to market to the general population. 

I'm not talking about the gaming population, but rather the family down the street with two kids who may not be the greatest gamers but are just looking to have fun.  The PlayStation Move is fun, but is it targeting the kid demographic the same way Kinect Disneyland Adventures is?  Probably not.  Is it targeting mom or dad, who want to work out to Wii Fit to lose weight?  No, it's targeting your hardcore gamer who is a die-hard fan of Uncharted, Twisted Metal, or any of the other great exclusives for the PS3.

My point is, it's not enough.  Targeting such a small demographic isn't enough for families to bring the PS3 into the living room.  They need to re-brand, and what better way to do that then to get a head start on the competition by AT LEAST announcing a new console.  They don't need to release the PlayStation 4 in 2012, but at least get people excited for its arrival in 2013, 2014, or whenever it may come.

PS4 More Powerful

Yesterday we brought you the rumors that both Microsoft and Sony would be showcasing their next gaming consoles at this year’s E3 event in June. We then wondered if we would see any such reveal by either company this year considering some of the big name titles already in the pipeline for the current generation of console. Today we have a new rumor about the Xbox 720 that will come out first, but the PS4 will be more powerful.

The rumor mill about the next consoles from both companies is in overdrive, as CVG are reporting that according to PSM3’s development sources the new PlayStation has specifications that are more powerful than the next Xbox. The same sources are also claiming that Microsoft will beat Sony to the market by a few months with the new Xbox model.

Meanwhile Xbox World is claiming that the next Xbox console will arrive late in 2013 and have a PowerPC based processor. This will be made by IBM and will come with Kinect 2.0 bundled with the console. They also think the PS4 will outperform the next Xbox model with processing power as well, and instead Microsoft is to concentrate on “utility and innovation”.

It is still believed that the two companies will be showing off their new hardware at E3, which will steal Nintendo’s thunder with the planned Wii U re-reveal. There will be many gamers happy waiting the best part of two years before we see a new Xbox come to the market. If Microsoft does beat Sony to the table by a few months and release the new Xbox late next year, it could be 2014 before the PS4 makes an appearance.

PS4 AT E3!?

This year’s E3 conference is shaping up to be a trifecta of console-related goodness. Both the new and improved Wii U and the next-gen Xbox are expected to make an appearance – and now Sony has announced that this is one party it’s not willing to miss. An “exemplary, 100% concrete, ultra high level” source has revealed to MCV that the “PS4″ will also make a debut at the June conference. This is exactly the kind of news that prompts the use of words like “showdown,” “epic,” or “deathmatch.”

The move is a smart one on Sony’s part. Despite its stated “ten-plus years” lifecycle for the PS3, a reluctance to show the world what it is working on for the future would be perceived as an obvious lack of forward momentum, and Sony can’t afford to sit on the sidelines while its two major console competitors duke it out for coverage and acclaim.

Pricing and availability information is not expected to emerge at E3 for either the Xbox or PS4 consoles. The Wii U is still scheduled for the end of 2012.

PS4 Cost

It has become abundantly clear that price is the determining factor when it comes to new gaming hardware.

Not many are anticipating a huge launch for the PlayStation Vita in North America, and that's despite the biggest launch software lineup in the brand's history. No, that $250/$300 price point is putting consumers off, as did the $600 price tag affixed to the PlayStation 3 in 2006.

So if Sony does indeed unveil the PS4 at E3 2012, the primary question will undoubtedly be- "How much will it cost?" According to sources, we won't get that answer at E3 but even so, the question will linger until Sony responds, and then the announced price will be put under the microscope. Although I don't have an unlimited bank account, I think it's a little ridiculous to only focus on price when it comes to such a complex entertainment product, but that doesn't change reality. Price is crucial.

So where does the PS4 need to be? What should be its initial price point? Bear in mind that the PS3 fell in price relatively quickly, although people continued to complain about the price until it dropped down to $300. Should they care more about what Microsoft plans to charge for the new Xbox? With a 10-year lifespan in place for the PS3, the games will continue to flow for several years (as they did for the PS2 after the PS3 launched), and it's unlikely Sony will want to put themselves back in the red (or the black) so soon. Remember, it took a little longer for the PS3 to turn a profit in comparison to the PS2.

But from a consumer's standpoint, what's a safe price tag? What's reasonable, accounting for some inflation? Would $400 be about right or is that wishful thinking? Perhaps the big question is the technology; i.e., what sort of fancy new tech should we expect? That clearly determines the cost; Sony was losing money on every PS3 sold at the start, even though it cost $600...that thing was stupid expensive to make at the time. It's five years later; people are paying $600 for new phones, but maybe that isn't a fair comparison. Electronics are pretty expensive, though.

More PS4 Specs!!

Blu-ray or HVD?
Many people have been saying that the next logical step for Sony is to ditch Blu-ray and go with HVD. HVD drives are just too expensive (a few thousand dollars) and too big.

Sony spent a lot of money on developing Blu-ray, why would they ditch it? Its wasteful and the fact that not a single developer has created a game that uses a full 50gb dual layer Blu-ray disc yet makes the extra space useless. And with a 100gb quad layer disc in development who needs HVD anyway?

Anyway to use the 100Gb disc you'll need a better Blu-ray drive with faster reading speeds. The PS3 has a 2x Blu-ray disc, 4x is the minimum to read a 100Gb disc. However the average read speed nowadays is 8x and it is relatively cheap, so I expect the PS4 to have at least an 8x drive which reads at 36Mb/s, so games should load much faster.

Hard drive or SSD?
SSDs are still to expensive to even be considered for a games console, so I expect spinning drives to stay with similar sizes of today’s PS3’s. I'm not sure if Sony will change the SATA port to SATA 2 or 3 considering hard drives still don’t reach the SATA 1 limit of 150 Mb/s.

PS4 USB connections
2 to 4 USB 3.0 connections are to be expected. Anyone who has ever done a full back-up of your PS3 would be grateful for USB 3 connections as backing up 100Gbs of install data, applications and save data can take about 8 hours, with USB 3 this should be halved.

PS4 GPU & RAM

PS4 GPU (Graphical Processing Unit)
This is where it gets a bit tricky as I am just going to base my prediction on a product that hasn't been released yet. However I do believe that since the PS4 is a “closed” system and that the cell can do some graphical processing that a relatively moderate GPU can be used in the PS4. For comparison the PS3 uses the Reality Synthesizer developed by Nvidia, clocked at 550MHz with 256Mb of GDDR3 clocked at 700MHz.

So if Sony is going to continue with stereoscopic 3D then that will rule out any ATI 5000 series cards and below and I do believe that Sony will stick with Nvidia anyway since they have a good relationship. The PS4 will need to be able to support 1080p 3D @ 60 FPS per eye so it has to have enough VRAM.

The Nvidia GeForce GTX 560 (due to be released in 2011) fits the bill perfectly. A 256 bit bus so that it can communicate with the cell fast enough, a 820MHz core clock speed, 1Gb of VRAM clocked @ 1GHz (4GHz effective speed). All of which if utilized properly could do 1080p @ 120 FPS and most importantly unified shader cores means more polygons, higher resolution textures and better effects.

PS4 system RAM.
For comparison the PS3 has 256Mb of XDR RAM clocked at an amazing 3.2GHz (Super fast!!!!!). The next obvious step would to include 1Gb of XDR however XDR2 has been released since that time with many improvements such as a bandwidth increase and reduced latency (even though it was low to begin with). XDR2 operates at double the CPU speed, so 6.4GHz to 7.6GHz is expected even though it can operate at up to 8GHz!
More than 1Gb isn't needed since there is a lot more VRAM this time, therefore there will be a more efficient use of the main RAM this time for other tasks for example watching a video, looking at pictures, going to the playstation store all while in a game.

PS4 CPU

PS4 CPU (Central Processing Unit)
For comparison the PS3 uses a cell based processor with 1 PPE (Power processing element) @ 3.2 GHz which is dual thread i.e. capable of processing 2 streams of instructions at a time and 8 SPEs (Synergistic Processing Elements) @ 3.2GHz of which 1 is disabled for yield purposes and 1 is reserved for security purposes such as encryption and decryption of the hard drive in real time. The cell in the PS3 has an overall performance of 204 GFLOPs.

Sony had invested hundreds of hundreds of millions of dollars in to the development of the Cell Processor and on building fabrication factories (of which cost over $500,000,000 each!), all that money would go to waste if Sony chooses not to include a Cell processor in their next console.

I believe that Sony will add more SPEs to have an overall amount of 16 SPEs as this has an optimal power to heat ratio if manufactured at 32nm. It should consume the same amount of energy as the 90nm Cell processor found in the 60/20Gb PS3s. 1 will be disabled for yield purposes and 1 will be reserved for security purposes. If this cell processor is made then it should start at 32nm as Sony is already at work shrinking the PS3's cell to 32nm. At 32nm they could double the local store for each SPE to 512KiB that will add much more performance for games.

Clock speed could increase to up to 3.8GHz, however with the improved performance of the new cell and the amount of SPEs this is unneeded and will create too much heat. I can only see an increase in clock speed if fabrication starts at 22nm as this will help reduce the heat created. 22nm processors are expected to be released in 2011 so by the time the PS4 comes out this would be the norm, so 22nm is a feasible starting fabrication. This will make it have an overall performance of around 500 GFLOPs for the whole Cell Processor at 3.2GHz.